An overview of the 2022 State Senate Primaries

A short discussion of redistricting and an overview of each State Senate primary race.

Brent Benson https://twitter.com/bwbensonjr
2022-08-25

It may be the middle of summer, but there is a lot going on in Massachusetts state legislature campaigns. This post spends some time looking at redistricting, specifically the new majority minority state senate districts, and then at each of the contested state senate primaries.

New majority minority districts

The Massachusetts State Senate lines have been redrawn by the legislature after the 2020 Census as required by the constitution. One of the goals of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) is to encourage majority minority districts to allow minority communities to elect the candidate of their choice.

The 2010-2011 MA redistricting based on the 2010 census was signed into law on November 21, 2011 and had three majority minority State Senate districts: the First Suffolk District running on the eastern side of Boston from South Boston down to Mattapan, the Second Suffolk District on the western side of Boston from the South End through Roxbury and Jamaica Plain into Hyde Park, and the Hampden District with West Springfield and most of Springfield and Chicopee.

The most recent 2020-2021 redistricting process led by State Senator William Brownsberger (D-Belmont) was able to add three more majority minority districts: the First Essex, Middlesex and Suffolk, and Second Plymouth and Norfolk.

The First Essex State Senate District contains all of Lawrence, all of Methuen, and approximately 5 precincts of Haverhill (give or take a few census blocks). The previous lines of the district (the dotted line in the map below) did not include Lawrence and instead included a large number of largely white communities. The new lines result in a voting age population that is 36% White, 56% Hispanic, 10% Black, and 3% Asian. The First Essex incumbent, Diana DiZoglio (D-Methuen), is running for Auditor, leaving an open race for a competitive field of candidates from Lawrence and Methuen (see the First Essex primary overview below).

Figure 1: First Essex District

The other newly created majority minority is the Middlesex and Suffolk District with incumbent Sal DiDomenico (D-Everett). Redistricting has added diverse sections of Cambridgeport and East Cambridge, while removing parts of Boston’s West End, Allston, and Brighton neighborhoods. The district ends up with a demographic mix of 46% White, 24% Hispanic, 12% Black, and 15% Asian. DiDomenico does not have primary or general election challenger.

Figure 2: Middlesex and Suffolk District

Figure 3: Second Plymouth and Norfolk District

The other majority minority State Senate districts are the Springfield-based Hampden district of Adam Gomez (D-Springfield), the Boston-based Second Suffolk district of Sonia Change-Diaz (D-Boston) who ran an unsuccessful campaign for Governor, and the Second Plymouth and Norfolk district with incumbent Senator Michael Brady (D-Brockton).

The full State Senate map is given here with dashed lines for previous State Senate district lines and some demographics (partisan lean, etc.).

Figure 4: MA State Senate Districts (2022)

State Senate Primary Overview

There are ten State Senate districts with contested primaries. There are three Democratic incumbents with primary challengers—Joan Lovely (D-Salem), Walter Timility (D-Milton), Michael Brady (D-Brockton)—and one Republican with a primary challenge, Patrick O’Connor (R-Weymouth).

There are five open seats with four having just a Democratic primary, and one seat—Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester—with both a Democratic and Republican primary.

Table 1: 2022 State Senate districts, post-redistricting
District PVI inc_status Incumbent primaries
Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire D+18 No_Incumbent (Adam Hinds—Pittsfield) D
Hampden and Hampshire D+6 Dem_Incumbent John C. Velis—Westfield
Hampden D+22 Dem_Incumbent Adam Gomez—Springfield
Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester D+4 No_Incumbent (Eric Lesser—Longmeadow) D,R
Hampshire, Franklin and Worcester D+23 Dem_Incumbent Jo Comerford—Florence
Worcester and Hampshire EVEN Dem_Incumbent Anne M. Gobi—Spencer
Worcester and Hampden R+2 GOP_Incumbent Ryan C. Fattman—Sutton
Second Worcester D+11 Dem_Incumbent Michael O. Moore—Millbury
First Worcester D+17 No_Incumbent (Harriette L. Chandler—Worcester) D
Worcester and Middlesex D+8 Dem_Incumbent John C. Cronin—Lunenburg
First Middlesex D+8 Dem_Incumbent Edward J. Kennedy Jr.—Lowell
Middlesex and Worcester D+20 Dem_Incumbent James B. Eldridge—Acton
Middlesex and Norfolk D+20 Dem_Incumbent Karen E. Spilka—Ashland
Norfolk, Worcester and Middlesex D+12 Dem_Incumbent Rebecca L. Rausch—Needham
Third Middlesex D+20 Dem_Incumbent Michael J. Barrett—Lexington
Fourth Middlesex D+16 Dem_Incumbent Cindy F. Friedman—Arlington
Norfolk and Middlesex D+32 Dem_Incumbent Cynthia Stone Creem—Newton
Norfolk and Suffolk D+18 Dem_Incumbent Michael F. Rush—West Roxbury
First Essex D+15 No_Incumbent (Diana DiZoglio—Methuen) D
Second Essex and Middlesex D+6 Dem_Incumbent Barry R. Finegold—Andover
First Essex and Middlesex D+10 GOP_Incumbent Bruce E. Tarr—Gloucester
Second Essex D+12 Dem_Incumbent Joan B. Lovely—Salem D
Fifth Middlesex D+16 Dem_Incumbent Jason M. Lewis—Winchester
Third Essex D+13 Dem_Incumbent Brendan P. Crighton—Lynn
Third Suffolk D+21 Dem_Incumbent Lydia Marie Edwards—Boston
Middlesex and Suffolk D+32 Dem_Incumbent Sal N. DiDomenico—Everett
Second Middlesex D+32 Dem_Incumbent Patricia D. Jehlen—Somerville
Suffolk and Middlesex D+32 Dem_Incumbent William N. Brownsberger—Belmont
Second Suffolk D+42 No_Incumbent (Sonia Chang-Diaz—Boston) D
First Suffolk D+30 Dem_Incumbent Nicholas P. Collins—South Boston
First Plymouth and Norfolk D+9 GOP_Incumbent Patrick Michael O’Connor—Weymouth R
Norfolk and Plymouth D+9 Dem_Incumbent John F. Keenan—Quincy
Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol D+11 Dem_Incumbent Walter F. Timilty—Milton D
Second Plymouth and Norfolk D+14 Dem_Incumbent Michael D. Brady—Brockton D
Bristol and Norfolk D+8 Dem_Incumbent Paul R. Feeney—Foxborough
Third Bristol and Plymouth R+1 Dem_Incumbent Marc R. Pacheco—Taunton
First Bristol and Plymouth D+1 Dem_Incumbent Michael J. Rodrigues—Westport
Second Bristol and Plymouth D+7 Dem_Incumbent Mark C. Montigny—New Bedford
Plymouth and Barnstable D+4 Dem_Incumbent Susan Lynn Moran—Falmouth
Cape and Islands D+12 Dem_Incumbent Julian A. Cyr—Truro R

Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire

Figure 5: Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire 15051 N Paul W. Mark D Becket
Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire 18113 N Huff Tyler Templeton, III D Williamstown
Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire 17691 N Brendan M. Phair U Pittsfield

The newly created and enormous Berkshire, Hampden, Franklin and Hampshire district contains 57 cities and towns in Western Massachusetts. The incumbent of the existing and similarly named Berkshire, Hampshire, Franklin and Hampden district, Adam Hinds (D-Pittsfield) ran an unsuccessful campaign for Lieutenant Governor, leaving this district without an incumbent senator.

The Democratic primary will feature sitting State Representative Paul Mark (D-Becket) whose current Second Berkshire State Representative district is outlined in the map, and Williamstown small business manager and activist Huff Templeton III. Representative Mark will have a considerable advantage as almost a quarter of the Senate district’s Democratic primary voters will have seen him on the ballot, and likely will have voted for him in the past.

The D+18 Partisan Voter Index (PVI) will make the winner of the Democratic primary the prohibitive favorite in November’s general election against unenrolled candidate Brendan Phair of Pittsfield.

Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester

Figure 6: Hampden, Hampshire and Worcesterm

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester 17987 N Sydney R. Levin-Epstein D Longmeadow
Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester 17483 N Jacob R. Oliveira D Ludlow
Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester 17963 N John Harding R East Longmeadow
Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester 13637 N William E. Johnson R Granby

The new Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester district is closely related to the previous First Hampden and Hampshire district currently held by Eric Lesser (D-Longmeadow) who is running for Lieutenant Governor. It is the only state senate seat to feature both a Democratic and Republican primary in 2022.

On the Democratic side, first term State Representative Jacob Oliveira (D-Ludlow) faces campaign strategist Sydney Levin-Epstein of Longmeadow. The dashed line on map shows the overlap of the Oliveira-held Seventh Hampden State Rep district.

Oliveira comes off a hotly contested State Rep win where he defeated Republican James “Chip” Harrington by 134 votes after a recount. Perennial candidate Harrington is running for state rep again against Democrat Aaron Saunders of Belchertown.

Levin-Epstein served as Deputy Finance Director for Ed Markey’s 2020 re-election campaign and is bringing her political organizing experience to bear on her own campaign this year.

The two GOP candidates are John Harding of East Longmeadow, a former military office who says he has been called by God to run, and William Johnson, a business owner from Granby.

First Worcester

Figure 7: Hampden, Hampshire and Worcesterm

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
First Worcester 17986 N Robyn K. Kennedy D Worcester
First Worcester 13194 N Joseph M. Petty D Worcester
First Worcester 18097 N Lisa K. Mair U Berlin

Senator Harriet Chandler (D-Worcester) is retiring after a 31-year career in public service. There are two Democrats vying for the Democratic nomination in the First Worcester district, comprised of much of Worcester, Boylston, West Boylston, Northborough, Berlin, and Bolton.

Robyn Kennedy of Worcester is the Executive Director or the YWCA of Central Massachusetts and has the backing of former Governor Deval Patrick and his Worcester-based Lt. Governor Tim Murray.

Joseph Petty is the former mayor of Worcester and has gained the endorsement of Senator Ed Markey.

The winner of the Democratic primary will face undeclared candidate Liz Mair of Berlin former online communications director for the Republican National Committee. The Democrat will have a strong advantage in this D+17 district.

First Essex

Figure 8: First Essex Senate Districtm

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
First Essex 15797 N Pavel Payano D Lawrence
First Essex 15879 N Doris V. Rodriguez D Lawrence
First Essex 17614 N Eunice Delice Zeigler D Methuen

As mentioned in the redistricting section of this post, the First Essex district is a new majority minority district containing all of Lawrence, all of Methuen, and some inner precincts of Haverhill. There is no incumbent senator running as Diana DiZoglio (D-Methuen) is running for auditor.

Pavel Payano is an at-large City Councilor in Lawrence; Doris Rodriguiez is a tax layer with public and private sector experience; and Eunice Zeigler is a City Councilor from Methuen.

A look at the total number of votes from each of the cities in the precincts contained in the First Essex District show that over 50% of the votes come from Lawrence, while 26% come from Methuen, and 23% from Haverhill, giving the Lawrence candidates somewhat of an advantage.

Table 2: First Essex vote distribution 2016/2020 presidential
city_town votes percent
Haverhill 1,321,958 23%
Lawrence 2,884,272 51%
Methuen 1,442,136 26%

Second Essex

Figure 9: Second Essex State Senate Districtm

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
Second Essex 14258 Y Joan B. Lovely D Salem
Second Essex 17874 N Kyle Alexander Davis D Danvers
Second Essex 14885 N Damian M. Anketell R Peabody

Assistant Majority Leader Joan Lovely (D-Salem) faces a primary challenge from Kyle Davis of Danvers. Davis has pursued a career as an artist and performer, supporting himself with day jobs as a waiter and food delivery driver, and is running in a attempt to diversify the legislature with people from atypical political backgrounds.

The winner for the Democratic primary will face Republican Damian Anketell who seems to have previously run for Essex County Sheriff as a Democrat. Anketell has been featured at Mass. GOP events promoted by Howie Carr to get a referendum question on the ballot to deny drivers licenses for undocumented immigrants.

The D+12 district will likely go to the Democrat, regardless of primary outcome, but the incumbency advantage of Lovely would make it highly unlikely for a GOP pickup.

Second Suffolk

Figure 10: Second Suffolk State Senate Districtm

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
Second Suffolk 18013 N Miniard Culpepper D Boston
Second Suffolk 16694 N Nika Elugardo D Jamaica Plain
Second Suffolk 18047 N James E. Grant D Boston
Second Suffolk 16987 N Liz Miranda D Boston
Second Suffolk 12237 N Dianne Wilkerson D Roxbury

Senator Sonia Chang-Diaz (D-Boston) decided to run for Massachusetts Governor, rather than for re-election to the State Senate, leaving the true blue Second Suffolk District as an open seat. There are five candidates vying for the Democratic nomination and the primary winner will take office in January, given that no non-Democratic candidates qualified for the race, not to mention its status as the most Democratic Massachusetts state senate district with a whopping PVI of D+42.

There are two sitting State Representatives in the race for the Second Suffolk. Nika Elguardo (D-Jamaica Plain) represents the 15th Suffolk State Representative District (dotted outline in the map), and Liz Miranda (D-Boston) represents the 5th Suffolk State Representative District (dashed outline in the map). Neither of these state representative districts overlaps with Second Suffolk State Senate district to a large extent.

Miniard Culpepper is a Baptist minister, lawyer, and community activist. James Grant is a former law enforcement officer and teacher.

Diane Wilkerson is a former State Senator who was convicted went to prison for accepting bribes related to granting of liquor licenses. She is out of prison and again running for public office.

First Plymouth and Norfolk

Figure 11: First Plymouth and Norfolk District

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
First Plymouth and Norfolk 18085 N Robert William Stephens, Jr D Hanson
First Plymouth and Norfolk 16317 Y Patrick Michael O’Connor R Weymouth
First Plymouth and Norfolk 18101 N Ronald J. Patuto R Marshfield

Senator Patrick O’Connor (D-Weymouth) is the only incumbent GOP senator to face electoral opposition in 2022. O’Connor is widely considered a moderate Republican in the Massachusetts vein. He did vote against the final version of the MA ROE Act, citing issues of expanding third trimester abortions and removal of most parental consent.

Senator O’Connor faces Marshfield Republican Ronald Patuto in the GOP primary. There isn’t a great deal of information around Patuto’s candidacy, but his Facebook timeline features promotions anti-masking and anti-vax rallies.

While I am not publishing model-based predictions for the primaries, this race is one where the general election model shows a big difference between the probability of a GOP general election win if O’Connor, the incumbent wins the primary (93% likelihood of GOP win), and if Patuto, the challenger wins the primary (21% likelihood of GOP win). This contrast demonstrates the power of incumbency and the fact that this moderate-for-MA state senate district (it is the 13th most Republican-leaning State Senate District) has as a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+9, making it an easy-enough Democratic target without an incumbent Republican on the ballot.

Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol

Figure 12: Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol District

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol 13294 Y Walter F. Timilty D Milton
Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol 18020 N Kathleen Crogan-Camara D Randolph
Norfolk, Plymouth and Bristol 18102 N Brian R. Muello R Braintree

State Senator Walter Timilty (D-Milton) is considered on the conservative side of the Massachusetts Democratic Party. One recent example would be his “No” vote on the MA ROE Act to expand and codify the right to an abortion in Massachusetts.

Timilty’s challenger for the Democratic nomination is Kathleen Crogan-Camara who is running on a platform promoting disability rights, but is also challenging Timilty with a much more progressive view on issues like women’s reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and immigrant rights.

The winner of the Democratic primary will face another perennial candidate, Republican Brian Muello of Braintree who has run unsuccessfully for Mayor of Braintree, Braintree selectman, Braintree Town Clerk, and U.S. Senate.

Second Plymouth and Norfolk

Figure 13: Second Plymouth and Norfolk

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
Second Plymouth and Norfolk 14822 Y Michael D. Brady D Brockton
Second Plymouth and Norfolk 17969 N Katrina M. Huff-Larmond D Randolph
Second Plymouth and Norfolk 18067 N Jim Gordon R Hanson

Another incumbent State Senator facing both a Democratic primary and a Republican general election challenger is Michael Brady (D-Brockton). As mentioned in the redistricting section, the Second Plymouth and Norfolk district is also newly minted majority minority district with 49% White, 35% Black, 8% Hispanic, and 3% Asian in terms of voting age population.

Senator Brady has weathered some challenges over the past several years, having been arrested for drunk driving in 2018 and being stripped of his committee chairmanship. Brady has since been re-instated to his leadership positions, presumably after serving out his probation with a dismissal of charges as per agreement.

Challenger Katrina Huff-Larmond, a Randolph Town Councilor, is campaigning on change, leadership, a deeper connection with the people. In addition, Huff-Larmond participated in the redistricting process and by running, is providing this newly majority minority district the choice of a candidate of color.

The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Jim Gordon of Hanson who is running on a platform for parental review of educational material, restoring qualified immunity for law enforcement, and cutting taxes while increasing infrastructure spending. The simple, but fallible model I use for estimating general election results based on PVI, incumbency, and whether it is a presidential voting year gives Gordon a 2 out of 100 chance of winning against Brady and a 1 out of 10 chance at beating Huff-Larmond.

Cape and Islands

Figure 14: Second Plymouth and Norfolk

District cpf_id Inc Candidate Party city_town
Cape and Islands 16300 Y Julian Andre Cyr D Truro
Cape and Islands 18056 N Daralyn Andrea Heywood R West Barnstable
Cape and Islands 18053 N Christopher Robert Lauzon R Mills Village

State Senator Julian Cyr is free from Democratic primary challengers in 2022, but will face the winner of a two-way Republican primary in November. It is quite unlikely that the Republican nominee will unseat incumbent Cyr in the D+12 Cape and Islands District.